tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6814854855476201435.post315574247074454322..comments2024-03-29T07:29:53.379+00:00Comments on Brexit & Beyond: Triggering Article 50: A bleak and bitter day for our countryChris Greyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02998257504878295964noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6814854855476201435.post-26089085240793422402017-04-08T13:14:04.320+01:002017-04-08T13:14:04.320+01:00Thank you Chris - will read with interest later to...Thank you Chris - will read with interest later today.Huw Sayerhttp://www.business-writers.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6814854855476201435.post-1444361384696181872017-04-07T18:49:40.021+01:002017-04-07T18:49:40.021+01:00Thanks, Huw. My latest post picks up some of these...Thanks, Huw. My latest post picks up some of these issues and I hope will be of interest.Chris Greyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02998257504878295964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6814854855476201435.post-60764946568385242642017-04-05T09:42:08.873+01:002017-04-05T09:42:08.873+01:00Brilliant. Thank you. The one hope I have (and it&...Brilliant. Thank you. The one hope I have (and it's a thin one) is the 'transition' period proves incredibly long. In fact, there might just be the chance of a classic Whitehall/EU fudge. <br /><br />As of today (5 April 2017), May has acknowledged that a) we can't sign an FTA with the EU until we have left and b) there will need to be (in her words) an 'implementation' period during which the four freedoms would probably continue.<br /><br />This leaves open the interesting if remote possibility of the UK being able to "check out but never leave" the Hotel EU. Something many people, including British holiday makers to southern Europe, will appreciate.<br /><br />May and her team clearly have no real idea what they are doing - they are making it up as they go along. Hence their fulsome rejection of all sound advice until they have to concede the point because reality has smacked them on the arse. <br /><br />They talk about a transition but can't give any details on what we might transition to. They talk about 'implementation' but can't say with certainty what we might implement.<br /><br />However, May has categorically said she will avoid a cliff edge. The Brexit hardliners don't have the muscle to force her over it - and British manufacturing (Tory donors) have said it's a red line to them. This leave her the opportunity of agreeing an open ended transition to a future arrangement yet to be determined. <br /><br />In April 2019 we will leave the EU (give up our MEPs, commissioners and seats at the various top tables - so no veto - but we might be allowed some sideline consultations). In return we will maintain full access to the single market / customs union with all that entails, including the four freedoms. May will spin this as "helping our EU neighbours adjust to our new freedom and preserving peace and stability in our most important market" or something similar).<br /><br />To avoid the agony of paying an exit bill (which would upset the Brexalots) - May will simply declare victory by saying we will not pay the exit bill (the EU will nod politely). However, we will continue paying into the EU budget just so long (to be determined) as we benefit from it (in terms of EU projects, CAP etc).<br /><br />This transition will be set at a minimum of 5 years with automatic extension to 10 years and beyond as mutually determined. By 2030 (three elections away), we might have spent so long in the EU Hotel lobby that we are willing to contemplate taking a room again.Huw Sayerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07973007356729575482noreply@blogger.com