Friday, 10 January 2025

Welcome to 2025

In one way, it has been a quiet period for Brexit news since my previous, pre-Christmas, post. That is hardly surprising, given the season. But it is only true if Brexit is understood in its narrow and literal sense. Understood in the wider sense of the unfolding of populist politics, 2025 has started with a noisy tumult, of a volume and variety which make it hard to analyze. For personal reasons (my mother died this week), this is a much shorter post than usual, but there is already no doubt that this is going to be an eventful Brexit year.

Brexit costs, again

Starting with the narrower and more literal issues, there has been another outbreak of claim and counter-claim about the costs of Brexit, largely sparked by a report in The Independent trying to summarize these costs. It referred to many of the studies and estimates which I’ve discussed previously on the blog, and provoked the usual criticisms of those estimates from the usual Brexiters (£).

Some of those criticisms have a spark of validity. In particular, as I’ve pointed out before, it is correct to say it is misleading to describe the ‘divorce bill’ as a cost of Brexit because they are payments for liabilities the UK had incurred as an EU member so, in that sense, would have been paid one way or another regardless of Brexit. Nevertheless, it shouldn’t be forgotten that many Brexiters insisted, amongst them Nigel Farage, that there would be no ‘divorce settlement’ to pay or, even, that the EU would owe money to the UK. Even when installed as Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson said the EU could “go whistle” for a financial settlement.

The only research mentioned by The Independent which I haven’t previously covered, because it came after I’d written my previous post, was a recent study by the LSE Centre for Economic Performance. As was widely reported, this estimated that in the in the first two years since the transition period ended the UK had “only” lost £27 billion in trade, and that although this had been a “disaster” for small businesses, this is less, so far, than would have been expected from the long-term (15 year) OBR prediction. This caused much back-slapping in Brexiter circles (where the usual objections of it being too early to tell, impossible to estimate, and academics all being remainer stooges were suddenly forgotten). Yet it is hard to see why they should be so gleeful, since Brexit was sold on the basis that it was going to be of positive benefit.

So this, coming up to five years since the day we formally left the EU, is the level to which the grand promises of Brexit have brought us: arguing over just how bad the damage has been. Not a single leading advocate for Brexit has ever apologized for the promises they made. At best, they shrug them off as having been thwarted by remainers and the EU.

How we got here, again

That, too, isn’t a news item, but I am in the process of reading Tim Shipman’s Out, a massive tome which provides a lot of crunchy detail about the politics of the Brexit process, and it serves as reminder of what actually happened in those years. Admittedly, it is only a reminder of a certain sort, not because it is biased in any crass way but because it takes as its frame of reference the idea that this was a negotiation in which the outcomes were about the political power-plays between Johnson’s government, the domestic ‘Bresistance’, and the EU.

In those terms, it is highly informative. But what is missing (unless it comes further on than I have yet read) is an understanding of the real legal parameters in play. In particular, on the key issue of the Northern Ireland border, it proceeds as if a borderless hard Brexit was, in principle, a possibility, and what was at stake was simply whether or not it could be negotiated. In this sense, intentionally or not, it accepts the essentially unrealistic position of the Johnson-Frost-Cummings period of Brexit.

Good evidence that my assessment is an accurate one comes from the laudatory review of Shipman’s book by David Frost himself. Hailing it as the “definitive” account “at least until [his] own book is written” (an implausible boast, but one displaying all his habitual delusion and arrogance), he praises it as “objective and fair” which, from so partisan a figure, suggests the opposite might be the case. More specifically, Frost sees the book as vindicating all his well-rehearsed criticisms of the ‘remainer parliament’ (£), the Supreme Court and, especially the Benn Act. No doubt he would always have been liable to read it in this way, but the fact that he is able to find Shipman’s book susceptible to such a reading (whilst criticising other accounts as biased) is an indication of its fundamentally uncritical framing.

Even so, precisely because of that, Shipman’s book is valuable, partly because it confirms just how ignorant those enacting Brexit were about its realities, and partly because it confirms just how monocular their focus was on ‘getting Brexit done’, regardless of how it was done. This, in itself, gives the lie to the idea that Brexit was undertaken in a form that was foisted on them: Johnson and Frost chose it. That, in turn, also gives credence to Starmer’s claim that, even within the red lines of hard Brexit’ a somewhat different arrangement could be possible. 2025 will be the year when he needs to make good on that claim, if he is ever going to, but that is likely to mean a year of slow grind rather than great fireworks.

Donald Trump, again

The opposite applies to Brexit in its wider sense. This year is going to be an important one for transatlantic populism, and though the connections with Brexit are indirect, they are real. At the most general level, there has always been a connection, acknowledged on both sides, between Trump and Brexit. But there are two more specific connections.

One is to do with how the UK navigates its relationship with the US, and whilst Trump’s second presidency would always pose issues for that, it does so with particular force now that Britain has cut itself off from the EU. Just how poisonous that relationship may become has already been suggested by the berserk ferocity of Elon Musk’s attacks on the UK, and the Starmer government specifically (£), and the frenzy it has engendered in domestic politics. No doubt there is much more to come and, given Musk’s attacks on other European countries, the sense that the UK’s shared interests lie with the EU will be all the more obvious.

The other is the extent to which Trump’s return will be associated with the continued insurgence of Nigel Farage and his Reform Party. But this has the opposite implication for UK-EU relations, because the more it seems obvious that Farage’s populism is a strong and permanent feature of UK domestic politics, the less likely it is that the EU will regard the UK as a stable and trustworthy partner for any kind of new agreements, even those as limited in scope as Labour’s ‘reset’. Just this week, Brexiter fury about the appointment of Sir Olly Robbins as Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Office was a reminder of the hold of Brexitism in the UK.

Stay cool, again

I haven’t had time this week to give much attention to these developments, which is regrettable given how extraordinary Musk’s accusations have been, and the vile manner in which they have been endorsed by some British politicians. But, in another way, it is not regrettable at all.

I pointed out in a recent post how narcissistic politicians like Trump exert power partly by generating a frenzy of comment around their each and every utterance. That’s also true of Farage. It is probably even more true of Musk, not least because he isn’t, in the normal sense of the word, a politician. It is no coincidence that his latest stuff tries to mobilize the natural revulsion most of us feel about the disgusting crimes of grooming gangs. Nor is it any coincidence that it does so in ways calculated to mobilize counter-revulsion at its opportunism and dishonesty. These people want us – need us – to be excitable, angry, confused, befuddled, and upset. They want us to be freaked out by their freakishness.

So our best response, and, actually, our best resistance, is cool, calm, considered analysis. Not only do they hate it, but it’s also the best way of keeping sane in the face of the mad psychodramas they try to create.

I have a strong feeling that this year, more than most, it is going to be important to remember that.

52 comments:

  1. We are all sorry for your loss.

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  2. Condolences on your bereavement. The loss of either parent can be a significant milestone in one's life and, like Brexit, it may take a while for the full impacts to be felt. Take it easy if you can. Many thanks for continuing with your blog.

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  3. My condolences on the death of your mother. In such sad circumstances, it was very good of you to prepare this post.

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  4. Dear Dr. Grey, please accept my deepest condolences on the death of your mother. It's a very sad occasion to have to come to terms-with.

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  5. "....our best response, and, actually, our best resistance, is cool, calm, considered analysis."

    Thank you very much for your's which provides those of us in the political front line (I am an active Lib Dem member) with much of what we need to keep making calm considered arguments with out political opponents.

    I recall my own mother's death about 11 years ago. A colleague wrote to me then, reassuring me that the pain does pass. He was right - it has, though of course I miss my mother still. My very best wishes for you.

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  6. Donncha Kavanagh10 January 2025 at 10:22

    Sincere condolences on your loss, Chris. Keep up the good work.

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  7. My condolences on the loss of your mother. Having lost both my parents in just over a year, I know how hard it is. It is all the more admirable that you have continued your sterling work on this blog.

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  8. Condolence from an Italian reader

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  9. Sincere condolences on the loss of your mother.

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    1. Seconded 🙏🏽

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    2. I am so sorry for your loss.

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    3. Very sorry for your loss. May your mum rest in peace and her memory be a blessing to you and your loved ones.

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  10. Peter Mandelson's Brexit "economic handbrake" analogy now seems to be clear and present. Perhaps I have just missed it, but it seems an age since Starmer or Labour have mentioned anything about Making Brexit Work ?
    As Rafael Behr has pointed out, Brexit is serious and fundamental, and it's economic effects are compounding. If I were an international investor, I would continue to take a sceptical view of Brexited Britain, to which the recent Budget changes make no real difference.

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  11. Heartfelt condolences; we owe Mrs Grey snr. a debt of gratitude for the intellect and perseverance she gifted you.

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  12. I am very sorry to hear that your mother died. I hope you are doing as well as possible in the circumstances.

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  13. My prayers and condolences on the loss of your mother. And thank you for all your many contributions to public life.

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  14. Thank you for continuing with your hugely valuable and valued work despite your sad loss.

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  15. Sorry to read of your loss.

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  16. Many thanks for all the kind comments about the death of my mother. I'm not replying individually but I do appreciate all of them, and am quite overwhelmed. I really didn't mention it in search of sympathy, by the way! Just to explain why it was shorter than usual (which, anyway, may not be a bad thing). But it means a lot that people here (and on social media sites) are being so supportive.

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    1. Keep up the good work. Honest and detailed analysis such as yours is so rare.

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  17. I'm very sorry for your loss. There were two very interesting bits of news which I thought were worth mentioning and it is of course quite understandable why you would be focusing on other things at this time.

    First, off the Stormont Brake was used for the first time over a chemicals regulation on making labels clearer which the DUP are saying would disrupt trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It's not my industry so I'm not sure whether or not this is true.

    My suspicion is that the government will deal with it by simply aligning UK rules with the new EU regulation.

    The second point was the UK government deciding to go ahead with the implementation of the gene editing bill, despite EU warnings (see https://www.ft.com/content/32c085d6-0170-462d-86d6-a6a35d071ec1)

    This is my industry and it is very clear that the Labour government have decided to diverge in a way that would make a veterinary agreement impossible. Personally, given that food is the UK's largest manufacturing industry, I think the win would have been bigger to open up exporting again.

    Nonetheless, for Brexit watchers it is interesting in that it shows the government's direction of travel.

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    1. Thanks. Yes, I was aware of both and would have discussed them if I'd had time. I must admit that I'm not sure whether the GE changes would make an SPS deal impossible, but will try to look into it. I think (off the top of my head) that in time EU GE regs will go in the same direction anyway (tho, even if so, the devil will be in the detail). The NI thing I suspect will go the way you suggest, but again I need to get on top of it.

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    2. Even if the EU at some future date moves to permit some gene editing we can be pretty sure it will not do so in precisely the same terms as the UK bill envisages. Therefore even in that case there will be an incompatibility between regulatory regimes. The UK can only be a de facto mimic if done in trail of the leader. And in the meantime the UK will be clearly out of step, which ever-alert EU customs officials will be very aware of. So EU food producers will be able to export to UK, but not vice versa.

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    3. To declare to an interest, I am in investor in UK food businesses that could start exporting again within a matter of days. Across the industry as a whole Aston University put an SPS deal at a 22.5% increase in exports, which given the size of the sector would likely shift the UK back into growth as a whole.

      I know many Brexit supporters, including the (welcome) guest on this blog, but I don't know any who wanted to stop British food exports.

      Impossible was too strong word in my original post but the government have definitely decided to put an SPS deal on the back burner to appease the most extreme nationalists.

      I really am very disappointed to see this from a Labour government, particularly as this was one of the very few policies in their extremely light manifesto.

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  18. Just read your piece Chris. Thanks as usual, and condolences. Thoughts a d prayers with you and your family 🙏

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  19. Sincere condolences.

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  20. My sincere condolences from a Spanish follower.

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  21. So sorry to hear about your mother. Mine died a few years ago and I was totally unprepared for the grief. Take time to get through it, and look after yourself. And thank you for all you write on Brexit, I've followed you for a long time and got a lot from your insight and cool analysis.

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  22. My condolences,and thanks for the effort of writing in such difficult circumstances, sir.

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  23. I am so sorry for your loss. May your mother’s soul rest in peace and may you and your family find comfort in cherished memories and the support of those around you.

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  24. Condolences, and thank you very much for continuing to write. All best wishes, Nora

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  25. So sorry to hear about your loss Chris. I know from my own mother’s recent departureIt that is hard to have to deal with all the necessary administration while you’re grieving.
    On top of this, thank you for striving to provide us with your blog, despite the sad circumstances.

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  26. So sorry for your loss, Chris.

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  27. I hope your mother's parting was peaceful. I feel for you

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  28. Sincere condolences on the death of your mother. Take time for you, when you can. So much to do in the early days of bereavement, I know from experience. And the loss of a parent is a huge milestone in one's life .

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  29. May I add my sympathy to this long list? We all appreciate your work and wish you and your family my condolences.

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  30. So sorry for your loss. Always a very sad moment. As others have noted it’s a big milestone and takes time to come to terms with

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  31. Sincere condolences to you and hope that 2025 will be better than what is now expected for you, us, and the world.

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  32. Thank you for your new blog, penned for us despite the sad loss of your mother - which may have meant a difficult Christmas for you too. Our condolences from Aachen, Germany.

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  33. Please see Patrick Cockburn's dispatch (the i) on how to deal with lies and calumnies ("It's time for Labour to take the fight to Elon Musk") and how in the age of mass media his historical view (ignore) has changed toward the need for robust responses.

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  34. Once more a detailed, informed analysis of the continuing political world-wide chaos and how it is liked to brexit.
    Your post brings a measure of sanity into the world, which is very much needed everywhre, not least here in Germany!

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  35. I am sorry to hear about your Mum - a big shift in ways that can be strange. Thank you for all your work and sanity saving. I’ve always been a fan since I read the short guide to Studying Organisations, which I recommend to anyone who will listen!

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    1. Thanks, that is kind. And glad you remember SO - this year marks 20 years since the first edition was published!

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  36. "because the more it seems obvious that Farage’s populism is a strong and permanent feature of UK domestic politics, the less likely it is that the EU will regard the UK as a stable and trustworthy partner for any kind of new agreements, even those as limited in scope as Labour’s ‘reset’. Just this week, Brexiter fury about the appointment of Sir Olly Robbins as Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Office was a reminder of the hold of Brexitism in the UK."

    This, to me, reinforces a feeling which I have long had is that Starmer knows this very well and that it explains his reluctance to radically challenge Brexit.

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  37. Excellent analysis as ever.
    Sorry to read about your mother; sending my sympathy. The world shifts on its axis when you lose a parent.

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  38. Sorry to hear about your mother Chris - sincere condolences. Stay strong and keep up the good work. Your expert comment on the absolute nonsense of Brexit keeps my faith in common sense against the backdrop of the facade we call democracy now

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  39. Once again, many thanks for the many kind messages. I'm truly grateful.

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  40. My sincere condolences upon the loss of your Mother this week, Professor Grey. I lost my Mother a year ago - as others have commented above this is such a painful moment in life. I have put up a nice photograph of my late Mum in our living room and this brings me comfort each day. God bless you.

    I look forward to reading your Brexit posting every fortnight and appreciate your informed analysis and comment. Thank you so much.

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  41. Sincere condolences.

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  42. 'cool, calm, considered analysis [is] also the best way of keeping sane in the face of the mad psychodramas they try to create'. It is certainly the method I prefer. In your opinion is it also the most influential?

    I am so sorry for your loss.

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  43. 'cool, calm, considered analysis [is] also the best way of keeping sane in the face of the mad psychodramas they try to create'. It is certainly the method I prefer. In your opinion is it also the most influential?

    I am so sorry for your loss.

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