Theresa May
has used the
annual Conservative Party conference to give a somewhat clearer sense of
where the UK is heading post-Brexit. The strong implication was that she is
seeking a hard Brexit – exiting the single market – given that she prioritised control
of immigration and exit from the European Court of Justice, which oversees the
single market. A strong implication, but she did not quite say it in terms, and
there is some tiny degree of wriggle room still for her to enact a soft Brexit.
She also disowned
the terms soft and hard Brexit as a false and outdated polarity. But if
that means that she still has some idea that there is an intermediate position
between being inside and outside the single market then it is likely that she
will be disappointed. In any case, the market reaction that followed, which saw
the
pound again fall sharply against both the dollar and the euro suggested
that hard Brexit was how they read it.
More
definitive was her pronouncement that all EU law would be written into UK law
and then there would be a gradual process of repeal of those which were
redundant post-Brexit. That played
well with Tory Eurosceptics, but it is really only a fancier way of saying ‘Brexit
means Brexit’, in that it is a move which is consistent with either soft or
hard Brexit and so, in itself, does not betoken either. It is, however, in its
own way a remarkable statement since the parliamentary time which it would
require to strike go through each piece of legislation and revoke or continue
with it will be enormous, and is likely to be the work of decades.
Also
eye-catching was the announcement that Lisbon 50 will be
triggered by the end of next March. But, again, this was not really news as
that was the approximate timeframe that had long been trailed. Still it did,
somehow, make more concrete that Brexit is going to happen, and carried the
possible consequence that the final exit will fall on April Fools’ Day 2019.
What also became clear was that her desire to engage in negotiations in advance
of Lisbon 50 notification will
not be countenanced by the EU27. Opinion seems to hardening amongst the
other countries that the UK will seek hard Brexit and will get no favours, with
a significant statement
from Angela Merkel today.
The more
diffuse, but politically important, message that May gave was one of nationalism,
and a decisive rejection of the cosmopolitanism associated with remainers: “if you
believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere”. Much of
her speech staked out the Tory party as that of the ‘local leavers’, in line with
my
own analysis that cosmopolitans and locals will be the defining post-Brexit
political axis. There are dangers and ironies in that, though, as much of Tory
support and funding comes from committed globalists, and none are more
committed to that than her Brexit ministers. Her comments have attracted
considerable derision, both at
home and abroad.
The issue now, perhaps, is whether those who feel themselves to be citizens of
the world can find a way of articulating themselves politically.
Despite that
fact that there is still not absolute clarity on the issue of single market
membership, it does seem from what May said – and also the hardline
anti-immigration policy announced by the new Home Secretary – that a hard
Brexit is now the most likely option. This will obviously do incalculable
damage to the UK economy, and especially to its service exports, and to the UK
itself both as regards Scottish independence and the Northern Ireland border.
She seems to have decided that despite the fact that the referendum did not
mandate any particular form of Brexit, it was unequivocally a vote for hard
Brexit. So, unless she is playing a very deep and subtle game, it seems that
May is not the pragmatist that she seemed when she came to power.
It would still be foolish to predict how things
will play out. May’s position is by no means unassailable given her small
parliamentary majority and the splits in her own party. Moreover, there is not
a majority either in parliament or in the country for hard Brexit. Most or all
of those who voted remain, and at least some of those who voted to leave, would
prefer a soft to a hard Brexit, so the support for soft Brexit must be at least
as high as the 52% who voted leave. Much now depends on whether the necessarily
dispirited remnants of the remain campaign can galvanise themselves to oppose
the hard Brexit that May appears to be inching towards.
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